- China is undergoing an important shift from a production-based economy to a consumption-based one.
- The days of high single-digit to low double-digit percentage GDP growth are over.
- While 5% GDP growth could be sustainable, that level leaves little room for policy errors.
The trajectory of China’s growth and transition to a consumption-based economy has broad global implications. China affairs specialist Andrew Dougherty and economist Stephen Green — based in Beijing and Hong Kong, respectively — offer their 10-year outlook.