Advisor Website Home | Contact Us | Site Map | Help | Career Opportunities

The power of paradigm shifts

Nick Grace
Portfolio manager
Based in:
London office
Investment experience:

NICK GRACE: Currently, I have very limited exposure to the mining stocks. The prices have gone up considerably over the last decade for commodities. And so we’re starting to see supply coming on, not in all commodities — in some it’s more pronounced, such as iron ore — but we are starting to see supply being slowly liberated and more supply being brought to the market. At the same time, demand has certainly softened, not just in some of the developed markets, such as Europe and the U.S., but in China as well. They went through a very, very strong period post the crisis, as they stimulated in 2009 and have taken that stimulus back. They’re also concerned about their property market, and they’re trying to encourage a shift from fixed-asset investment to more consumption within the country. So we’re starting to see supply come to the market and demand normalize, or stabilize, at a historical 2–3% sort of growth.

When I look at that environment, it doesn’t necessarily imply that commodity prices are about to collapse, but it certainly doesn’t argue to me that we’re going to see a robust price environment going forward. So I have reduced my commodity exposure, both oil and metals, substantially over the last two years. And instead I’ve been concentrating more on the consumption side of the economy.

The statements included in this section are the opinions and beliefs of the speakers expressed at the time the commentary was written and are not intended to represent those persons’ opinions and beliefs at any other time.

Past results are not predictive of results in future periods.

Investments are not FDIC-insured, nor are they deposits of or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity, so they may lose value. Investors should carefully consider investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. This and other important information is contained in the fund prospectuses and summary prospectuses, which can be obtained from a financial professional and should be read carefully before investing.

Investing outside the U.S. involves risks such as currency fluctuations, periods of illiquidity and price volatility. These risks may be heightened in connection with investments in developing countries. Small-company stocks also entail additional risks, and they can fluctuate in price more than larger company stocks. See the most recent shareholder report or prospectus for more information on these and other risks associated with investing in the fund.

The return of principal for bond funds and for funds with significant underlying bond holdings is not guaranteed. Fund shares are subject to the same interest rate, inflation and credit risks associated with the underlying bond holdings. Bond prices and a bond fund’s share price will generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Lower rated bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal than higher rated bonds. Bond ratings, which typically range from AAA/Aaa (highest) to D (lowest), are assigned by credit rating agencies such as Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s and/or Fitch, as an indication of an issuer’s creditworthiness. For tax-exempt bond funds, income may be subject to state or local income taxes and/or federal alternative minimum taxes. (The Tax-Exempt Bond Fund of America® is not subject to alternative minimum taxes.) Certain other income, as well as capital gains distributions, may be taxable. Unlike mutual fund shares, investments in U.S Treasuries are guaranteed by the U.S. government as to the payment of principal and interest. Regular investing neither ensures a profit nor protects against loss in a declining market. Investors should consider their willingness to keep investing when share prices are declining. An investment in the money market fund is not insured or guaranteed by the FDIC or any other government agency. Although the fund seeks to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 per share, it is possible to lose money by investing in the fund.

Capital Group manages equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed-income investment professionals provide fixed-income research and investment management across the Capital organization; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.